“Brexit might cause property prices to fall by up to 50%” some commentators are proclaiming. Even the Bank of England is climbing on the PR wagon with statements like “House prices could fall by up to 30% from their pre-Brexit level if there is no deal”. It might be great news for some first-time buyers if house prices collapsed but who would provide the mortgages? Or who would build the houses in the first place if values are on the way down?
The last time I looked I live in a stable economy. Employment is at record levels and inflation is sort of under control. A no deal Brexit is not going to be good news but even if that is the outcome I cannot see a catastrophic fall in property prices. We need houses and we need them now. We have plenty of money to fund developments and mortgages, there are loads of buyers out there.
Commercial property might take a knock but, in my opinion, it will be a small one. Well run companies are natural survivors, they will temporary hold back on some investments, but they must spend to survive. That might mean a new warehouse, or a bigger office.
There is a rumour knocking around that Brexit could be delayed until 2020 which means the uncertainty can be dragged out for another year or more. I think we will leave this year and probably this March, with a deal. I might be naïve, but I am looking forward to eating my chips out of a newspaper full of Brexit bombshells that never went off.